BTC below 40k, short-term holders drive volatility while geopolitics spook markets

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With bitcoin trading mostly sideways during the weekend, without any major movement, the top cryptocurrency by market cap still fell under the important $40,000 mark. According to analysts’ data, short-term holders continue to be the main driver of bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility.

The market price of bitcoin stayed around $44,000 during most of last week, printing a seven-day top on Wednesday at just over $44,500, but started to decrease on Friday. Bitcoin barely managed to hold above $40,000 over the weekend but fell through on Sunday. Over the last seven days, bitcoin is down about 8%, at the moment of writing bitcoin is up 2.2% in the past 24 hours, trading at $39,145.

Short-term holders main driver of BTC volatility

According to analysts at both Glassnode and IntoTheBlock, short-term holders are the most likely cohort to spend their coins in response to volatility and continue to be the main driver of BTC volatility. While long-term holders remain unfazed, the balance held by traders – addresses with BTC less than one-month holdings – are moving almost in tandem with the price action.

Since the 24th of February, short-term holders decreased their holdings by 8.7% to 1.55 million BTC. Bitcoin short-term holders currently own 54.5% of all coins held at an unrealized loss amounting to 2.56 million BTC, creating sell-side headwinds for price.

Markets, in general, are in a moody sentiment as geopolitical events set the tone. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, in particular, is on the market’s radar, as is the development in Canada and elsewhere. The downward trend in bitcoin price coincided with the S&P 500 once again dropping during the past week. Meanwhile, gold has soared to an eight-month high.

Almost all top 10 cryptocurrencies follow bitcoin

Meanwhile, almost all top 10 cryptocurrencies follow bitcoin in a downward trend the past seven days. The exceptions are Terra (LUNA) and Avalanche (AVAX) which are up 1.2% and up 0.3% over the past seven days respectively. Ethereum (ETH), the second cryptocurrency by market cap is down 5.4% on the week, but up 2.5% on the daily at the moment of writing.

Bitcoin is down 43.7% since the all-time-high at $69,044 on the 10th of November 2021, while Ether is down 44.1% since its all-time-high at $4878 on the same date.


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